UThe UK could face critical staff shortages in the coming years, especially in industries like hospitality, retail, and social care, as net migration is expected to fall sharply. This includes stricter rules surrounding the Skilled Worker visa UK, raising concerns about the future of workforce availability.
According to Professor Brian Bell, Chair of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), net migration is projected to drop to around 200,000 by 2026. This represents a major shift from the 431,000 provisional estimate for the year ending December 2024 and even more so from the record 906,000 reported in the year to June 2023.
Why Net Migration Is Falling in the UK
The fall in net migration is linked to recent policy changes aimed at tightening immigration, particularly for work-related routes like the Skilled Worker visa and Health and Care Worker visa.
Bell explained that visa issuance numbers have significantly declined, a trend expected to continue in the short term.
“There was a very big fall in migration. We’re now down to about 430,000, and I think that downward trend will continue,” he said. “We may well see net migration fall to 200,000 next year. In the medium term, we expect figures closer to 300,000.”
This decline is likely to be welcomed by political leaders. Labour Party leader Keir Starmer recently pledged to cut net migration significantly, though without setting a specific target. His plan includes restricting the Skilled Worker visa UK, particularly for roles in the care sector.
Industries Most at Risk from Lower Migration
While tighter rules may help control immigration numbers, they could also have unintended consequences. Prof. Bell warned that essential sectors such as hospitality, retail, and healthcare—many of which rely on foreign workers entering through the Skilled Worker route—may face increasing recruitment challenges.
“Hospitality and retail are likely to suffer. The government’s decision to restrict access to skilled workers from overseas could have a direct impact,” he noted.
In particular, the government’s plan to stop care providers from sponsoring new overseas care workers using the Health and Care Worker visa may worsen staffing issues.
Despite restrictions, UK employers may still hire individuals already residing in the UK on existing Skilled Worker visas.
Family Visas and Income Thresholds
At the launch of the MAC’s latest family visa income threshold report, Bell also addressed controversial plans to increase the minimum income requirement for family visas to £38,700.
The committee argued that such a change could clash with UK human rights law and suggested a more balanced approach. Proposed alternatives include thresholds ranging from £23,000 to £28,000, allowing families to reunite while ensuring economic sustainability.
Lowering the income threshold to around £24,000 could result in a modest 1–3% rise in net migration but may better support family life and reduce taxpayer burden.
Skilled Worker Visa UK: What Employers and Applicants Need to Know
The Skilled Worker visa UK remains a critical pathway for filling roles in sectors with recognised shortages. However, employers must now meet higher salary thresholds, pay increased visa sponsorship fees, and prove that roles cannot be filled by UK residents before turning to foreign applicants.
Applicants must:
- Have a job offer from a Home Office-licensed sponsor
- Meet the required skill and salary levels
- Demonstrate English language proficiency
For the latest guidance, visit the official GOV.UK pages on the Skilled Worker visa and eligibility requirements.
READ MORE:
- New UK Immigration Policy 2025: Major Changes to Skilled Visas, Settlement Rules, and More
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